Impact of Extreme Heatwaves on Population Exposure in China Due to Additional Warming

Extreme heatwaves are among the most important climate-related disasters affecting public health. Assessing heatwave-related population exposures under different warming scenarios is critical for climate change adaptation. Here, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model ensemble output results applied over several periods in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR6 report, to estimate China’s future heatwave exposure 1.5 °C and 2.0 scenarios. Our show a significant increase projected annual days (HD) both With an additional temperature of 0.5 warming, by mid-century 20.15 percent HD would occur, warming. If warmed from mid-century, 40.6 percent. Among three influencing elements that cause changes related China–climate, population, interaction (e.g., as urbanization affects redistribution)–climate plays dominant role (relative contribution exceeds 70 percent). Therefore, considering heat risks, humanity benefits reduction particularly eastern China. This conclusion may provide helpful insights developing mitigation strategies change.